Escalating War of Words Involving Ethiopia and Eritrean Government Raises Anxieties of Conflict

Increasing apprehensions exist about the potential of armed conflict between Horn of Africa neighbours, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has intensified in the past few weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has provoked a intense rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in the previous year that his government's access to the sea was an existential matter, statements that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Relations between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing battle for independence, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, making it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a military clash started in which numerous people lost their lives.

Recent Comments from Ethiopia's Officials

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and suggested the wish to take it by force.

On 1 September, the Prime Minister said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing access to the sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be restored "through military action".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

Despite persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to brief comments on social media from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a approach of reclaiming lost territory.

Government spokespeople warned on recently that efforts to validate "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Preparations on the Ground

Currently, there are little evidence of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the both nations.

However, in the country, national TV has shown completion events of many recruits at multiple army bases.

The head of personnel division of the military, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an discussion that the army was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Historical Origins of the Conflict

For decades from the late 19th century, the territory was administered by Italian colonisers.

After World War II, it was then administered by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

But in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long civil war ensued, concluding with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then endorsed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their mutual frontier, leading to hostilities in 1998.

Though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors continued at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two endorsed a declaration that the conflict was finished – a decision that earned the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The two governments were then cooperators in the country's recent civil war in the northern region.

But ties have since broken down once more.